Purplebricks Australia boss cashes in shares worth £146,000

first_imgHome » News » Agencies & People » Purplebricks Australia boss cashes in shares worth £146,000 previous nextAgencies & PeoplePurplebricks Australia boss cashes in shares worth £146,000Ryan Dinsdale exercises options on 40,000 shares just a few days after praise for his operation in latest company trading update.15th December 201702,230 Views The CEO of Purplebricks Australia has cashed in shares worth £146,000 after exercising his share options in the company, it has been revealed, just after the one-year anniversary of the country launch.Ryan Dinsdale (pictured, right), who joined Purplebricks in June 2016 following time spent at Virgin Money, Telstra and an online broker in Australia, has led the Purplebricks operation in Oz to recent success including, so far, sales totalling property worth $1 billion AUS.His team earlier this week reported revenues of £6.8 million and a gross profit of £3.6 million, and an average income per instruction of $5,282 AUD.He has also increased the number of Local Property Experts working for Purplebricks in Australia to 105, the company’s latest interim trading statement says.Austrian market shareIt also says that Australia has been more successful than the UK by one measure – market share – which is now higher than the UK 74% of the online market.At the same time Ryan sold his shares, Purplebricks revealed that a further 1.17 million ordinary share options have been exercised by “certain employees”, indicating that some original founding but non director-level staff at the company have also cashed in shares worth, in total, £4.07 million.Read more about Purplebricks in AustraliaPurplebricks Ryan dinsdale Share options Purplebricks shares Australia December 15, 2017Nigel LewisWhat’s your opinion? Cancel replyYou must be logged in to post a comment.Please note: This is a site for professional discussion. Comments will carry your full name and company.This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.Related articles Letting agent fined £11,500 over unlicenced rent-to-rent HMO3rd May 2021 BREAKING: Evictions paperwork must now include ‘breathing space’ scheme details30th April 2021 City dwellers most satisfied with where they live30th April 2021last_img read more

Review: Debris

first_imgThe Burton Taylor Studio, 28th February-1st March Dennis Kelly’s Debris begins with the Crucifixion. This, though undeniably comparable with the Christian sacrifice it mimics, does not exactly follow any predictable pattern. Perhaps expecting the nobility and tortured resolve of a martyr, we are confronted with a very different spectacle: a flatulent, middle- aged, widowed, alcoholic father-of-two stapling himself to the ceiling; with the aid of ice-lolly sticks. This is provocative imagery and, in the words of his sixteen-year-old son Michael (Matt Maltby), who is first to be greeted by the display, there was no thought of suicide in his eyes. His thoughts, we are led to believe, have their root in anger, sorrow, and the painful realities of a thankless life. But this is only a two-person play, and all this is presented through the eyes of his two young children. The crucifixion is recounted through the eyes of Michael, who, in a dramatic opening soliloquy, creates a poignant, realistic and subtle interplay between character and narrator voice, half-imagined, half-witnessed. Events are described in a disconcerting blend of clinical minutiae and bursts of emotional grandiloquence, introducing the theme of reality as juxtaposed with his own truth and that of his sister Michelle (Sarah Milne-Das). It is a very personal pathos created here. The use of such young protagonists does in no way detract from the impact of the play’s message; to the contrary, the self-conscious incongruity between the poetic register of dialogue and the age and emotional maturity of the siblings captivates us and allows us entry into their world, where reality and childlike fantasy are inseparable. This is emphasised by the unaffected familial chemistry between Michael and Michelle, which develops as the play progresses; in fact, their two different paces of delivery help the flow of the play by off-setting one another, and disrupting any predictable rhythm of dialogue.In Debris, relationships are paramount. They dictate how the children learn to make sense of their place in the world and of each other, and inform their opinion of normalcy – coupled, of course, with the judicious presence of television. This is most striking when the children take it upon themselves to consider the fundamental developmental requirements of an infant, the infant in question having been discovered naked in a garbage heap only to be regarded suckling blood at his surrogate father’s teet: “They need a telly”.Pause. “This is true.” This clearly illustrates the play’s inherent cynicism, but also contrasts it with a dark, but no less pertinent, humour. Maltby and Milne-Das deliver their lines strongly, passionately and with an acute sense of timing, comparable to the Oxford Imps as well as any classical actor. We are drawn inexorably into their understanding of raw survival in the face of human degradation, and as the lines between the reality of truth and the reality created within the secret confines of the play begin to blur, it is their strong performances that, in the words of the playwright himself, “make it all real”. Let’s not beat about the bush: fantastic play, fantastic production, fantastic performances. Combined are humourous philosophical insights with excruciating attendant circumstance. The Burton Taylor Studio provides the perfect intimacy for this piece as the audience sits on the brink of the action, while the space is used imaginatively about them. Thank you Will Maynard for your superb direction and a wonderful evening. You can always tell a really good play by the silence that greets it at the end, no one willing to break the spell before the well-deserved applause. By Philippa Harris and Lara Giuliana Gouveia Simonetti.last_img read more

Warburtons workers mull strike action

first_imgStaff at Warburtons may be heading for strike action after they rejected a below-inflation wage offer and changes to their working terms and conditions.The Bakers, Food and Allied Workers Union (BFAWU) will ballot its 1,000 members between 10 and 24 October over possible industrial action at Warburtons’ 24 UK bakeries and depots.Sources revealed that Warburtons has offered staff a deal including a 3.7% annual pay increase, but with team leaders considered separately, plus a regime where additional payments would be triggered if the company hits collective absence-reduction targets. For example, if overall absence was reduced by 1%, all staff would be eligible for a wage increase.However, unions are believed to be unhappy that the basic increase is below inflation, which has been running at 4%. Collective responsibility for absence-reduction is another sticking point as unions believe that only individual performance should be taken into account.A source said: “Warburtons is the second strongest brand in the UK behind Coca-Cola [Nielsen figures, 2007]. It wants to be a Premier League team, but it is not paying Premier League wages. It has put up its prices by 10%, but not its wages. This has been brewing for the last three to four years.”Warburtons said in a statement: “Warburtons can confirm that it has been in discussions with the BFAWU around annual pay negotiations. An agreement has yet to be reached.”The BFAWU is planning to ballot its members on 10 October to gauge support for the principle of taking strike action. Warburtons will continue to try to resolve any differences amicably and through negotiation, both ahead of and following any ballot.”last_img read more

Cake campaign trail

first_imgFor those non-bread confectionery bakers who think they’ve dodged the hail of bullets from Real Bread Campaign’s team of anti-plant bread snipers, think again. The Campaign for Real Cake was launched at Speciality & Fine Food Fair in September, which rails against “highly processed, mass-produced, chemistry set cakes”.The barometer of a “real cake” is whether it can realistically be made in your home kitchen using ingredients in your cupboard. “Some people, especially children, are now only used to processed cake and do not know what real cake tastes like, while for others, real cake is just a fading memory,” said Cambridgeshire artisan baker Nutty Tarts, which is behind the campaign. “The result is that cakes lose their specialness and attraction and become just another bland food offer.”The stated aim of the campaign is to:l produce a petition calling for more real cakel develop a symbol of recognition for cakes baked in the traditional way, using only kitchen cupboard ingredientsl call on the government for tax breaks/incentives to encourage smaller artisan bakers such as those that benefit microbreweries.”We welcome all real cake producers to come together and celebrate all that is good about Real Cake and to ensure that every child has the opportunity to taste real cake,” said Nutty Tarts MD Deborah Armiger.Sound familiar? While the highly organised Real Bread Campaign has the backing of food policy lobbyists Sustain, Real Cake at first glance appears to be opportunistic PR. As they say, the proof of the pudding…last_img read more

Anderson facility has 24 COVID-19 deaths; state toll 300

first_img Facebook Facebook Twitter Previous articleAnother 133,000 Indiana residents file unemployment claimsNext articleWinnebago plans to begin reopening Elkhart County RV plants in May Associated PressNews from the Associated Press and its network of reporters and publications. Google+ (“A row of tea candles” by Markus Grossalber, CC BY 2.0) INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — The state’s health commissioner says 24 residents of a central Indiana nursing home hit hard by COVID-19 now have died.Dr. Kristina Box said Friday that 16 of the residents at the Bethany Pointe Health Campus in Anderson had tested positive for the disease caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the other eight had compatible symptoms.She says “this is a tragedy for the families” and “a tragedy for our entire state.”Indiana’s total death toll from COVID-19-related illnesses surged by more than 20% Friday as state health officials reported another 55 deaths, pushing the state’s toll during the pandemic to 300 deaths. Pinterest CoronavirusIndianaNews Anderson facility has 24 COVID-19 deaths; state toll 300 WhatsApp By Associated Press – April 11, 2020 0 305 Google+ Pinterest WhatsApp Twitterlast_img read more

EXCLUSIVE: Stream Snarky Puppy Guitarist Bob Lanzetti’s Debut Solo Album Ahead Of Its Release

first_imgTomorrow, September 28th, Bob Lanzetti, guitarist of three-time Grammy Award Winning jazz/funk collective Snarky Puppy, will officially release his debut solo album, Whose Feet Are These That Are Walking. The album’s core band is a quartet featuring Lanzetti on all guitars, Philip Sterk on pedal steel guitar, Matt Aronoff on bass, and Jordan Perlson on drums, with special guest appearances from Lanzetti’s Snarky cohorts Michael League, Cory Henry, Nate Werth, Marcelo Woloski, Justin Stanton, Mike Maher, among others throughout the album.Compared to his work with Snarky Puppy, which leans more towards textural funk and ambient compositions, Bob Lanzetti’s solo album is differentiated by his emphasis on melodies and blues-heavy guitar solos. “I started writing most of the music probably 4-5 years ago,” explains Lanzetti. “At that time, Snarky Puppy was touring constantly. I think my initial desire was to do something totally different than Snarky Puppy. Maybe just to create a balance in my musical life [laughs]. To that end, a lot of the music to me feels like songs that you could imagine a singer singing. At the time, I was listening to a lot of stuff like Patsy Cline, Loretta Lynn, Willie Nelson. A lot of classic country. So that definitely made its way into some of the music. What I wanted to do was combine elements of some of those classic country recordings and songwriting styles with improvised moments. I wanted to think of my guitar as a lead singer, that would sometimes jump out of that ‘lead singing’ role and become more guitar-istic.”***You can listen to the new album below exclusively though Live For Live Music*** On “B,” the band methodically establishes a rock solid floor before expanding the collective sound with a crystal clear guitar line. Lanzetti quickly throws in a much warmer, fuzzier-toned accompanying line as counterpoint to the first, adding a challenging aspect to the track. The sense of movement and realization that permeates “B” will cause even the most casual listeners to turn their full attention to the pyrotechnic blues-guitar display.“Happy Stranger” slows the oscillation of the opening track with deep, mournful, big-sky notes, slow and arching. Softly singing voices accompany the track, adding a sonic girth that matches the expansive guitar phrasing. Once the table is set, Lanzetti takes full control, his jubilantly arching guitar licks crying from the center of the dry and dusty soundscape. At its heart, “Happy Stranger” is a waltz, and the dance floor it sets itself upon is the noble soil of the plains.Scratchy intro percussion gives an Americana vibe to “Frances,” with a rolling snare further increasing the focus on stellar percussion of Jordan Perlson. Earnest bluesy guitar from Sterk on pedal steel gives Lanzetti room to experiment. The production on the entire album is a near perfect balance of control and minimalism, and “Frances” raises the bar for the tracks that follow.“Ivory” finds Lanzetti and company ready to turn up the tempo and get to rocking. Merging a jazzy, vaguely Latin beat with a sixties, mod-esque guitar line the Fierce, forceful and driven. Rising and falling rhythms, wild echo laden effects and a sense of urgency quickly set “Ivory” apart from the songs it follows. The building intensity of the song imparts a sense of Lanzetti having a point he desperately wants to make.“Caroline No” sees Lanzetti returning to the wide open soundscape mentality established earlier on the disc. Echo and reverb thicken his tone almost beyond the ears ability to accept. The song itself takes on an air of a spiritual as organ fills and sof chords seem to float gently down a sunny stream. The mixture of gospel timbre and vast musical mesas make “Caroline No” a perfect song for those lazy afternoons of summer.“Anoynomous” is guitar-based fusion of jazzy space and rock sensibilities with the rhythm section ready to provide a pocket and splashes of color as needed. Broken into free-flowing sections, the song honors both ends of the dynamic evenly. It unexpectedly collapses into a psychedelic morass of theremin-styled waves of sound that give the feeling of broken thoughts. While  the result would be schizophrenicin less competent hands, the use of previously established elements sets up the introduction of the new sonic components brilliantly.“Jenny Is A Donkey” is a return to the southwestern vistas to close the piece. Following the fireworks of the previous track, the reedy organs and crisp percussion perfectly accompany Sterk’s drawn out pedal steel sound. Lanzetti has one last, impossibly clean and cutting guitar line to add, and each note seems to entwine itself through the sonic weave the rest of the players have untied to create.In setting out to explore new territory, Lanzetti manages to establish a whole new sandbox for himself to play in for the years to come. When artists break new ground for themselves the real winners are us, the lovers of music itself. You can check out Bob Lanzetti perform at the Independent Bar and Kitchen on November 7th in Dallas, Texas as part of Mark Lettieri’s residency. Don’t miss out!Bob Lanzetti’s new album, Whose Feet Are These That Are Walking is available for pre-order here.last_img read more

After Katrina, residents rolled up sleeves

first_imgMost people recall the heart-rending images of flood victims clinging to rooftops, pleading for help in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the mega-storm that ripped into the Gulf Coast in 2005. Harder to remember are the grueling recovery efforts in the months and years that followed.One often-overlooked side to that recovery involves the countless residents who bonded to rebuild their devastated communities. Now a Harvard graduate is making sure their stories are told. Tom Wooten ’08 has just published the book “We Shall Not Be Moved: Rebuilding Home in the Wake of Katrina.”Wooten, a Ph.D. candidate in Harvard’s sociology department, on Wednesday discussed his work during a talk sponsored by the Harvard College dean’s office, the Harvard Undergraduate Council, and the Harvard Alumni Association (HAA). The Sever Hall lecture was one of Harvard’s diverse Wintersession offerings that help students explore their other interests, and connect with alumni, before the spring academic semester begins.Recently, the popular winter book talk series featuring Harvard faculty has expanded to include alumni. The new format, say Harvard officials, encourages students to tap into Harvard’s vast network of alumni who can share their career knowledge and experience.“Once students arrive at Harvard, they become part of a lifelong community,” said Philip Lovejoy, HAA’s deputy executive director. “Wintersession draws alumni back to campus to share their stories and expertise, which ultimately helps students to craft their own paths.”The new book grew out of Wooten’s interest in another tragedy. During his freshman year, he and his roommate, Utpal Sandesara ’08, began research on the Machhu dam collapse in Gujarat, India, that killed thousands of people in 1979. Their 2011 book, “No One Had a Tongue to Speak,” details the disaster and the Indian government’s top-down approach to the recovery effort, one that “didn’t involve victims of the disaster.”Wooten said that work made him curious about “what the opposite type of recovery would look like, one that was driven completely by neighborhoods or by residents themselves. … And for better and for worse, that’s what was happening in New Orleans.”Wooten was one of countless other young volunteers who descended on Louisiana to help its battered coastal communities rebuild when he made his first trip there in 2007, when he was a junior. He traveled back to New Orleans later that year to interview community leaders and study how the city’s grassroots recovery effort was unfolding, for his senior thesis. In 2008, backed by a fellowship from the Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), Wooten returned to the city with the aim of expanding his research into a book.The resulting work is an intimate narrative that profiles five New Orleans communities and the steps that their residents took to rebuild, in “the vacuum of government leadership” and the absence of accessible federal, state, or city support.During his talk, Wooten offered the example of Broadmoor, a diverse neighborhood near the city’s heart. Residents responded to an initial city recovery plan created by a special commission, which had suggested replacing their flood-damaged community with parkland, by making their own arrangements for the future.“What residents decided was that instead of lobbying city hall and saying, ‘You shouldn’t tear us down,’ they were just going to prove that the neighborhood was viable,” he said.Neighborhood leaders organized meetings on street corners that attracted hundreds of residents. The neighbors created planning committees devoted to goals such as reviving the local school, reopening the library, and rebuilding damaged homes.Wooten described how the neighborhood leaders, in part with help from HKS, began to apply for their own aid. They successfully secured a $2 million grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York to help them overhaul their waterlogged library. Instead of relying on the government to reopen their public school, they created their own school board and developed plans for a charter school.From his Broadmoor porch, Wooten said he “watched the recovery unfold,” and the neighborhood “come back to life.”But Wooten’s encouraging message also included a note of caution. While he called his hopeful stories of recovery and the capacity within neighborhoods the “the silver lining” of Katrina, the process, he said, was “by no means ideal. This is what happened as a result of neighborhoods being left to essentially fend for themselves.”Tara Raghuveer, the president of Harvard’s Undergraduate Council, called Wooten “a social studies superstar.” A social studies concentrator with an interest in urban policy and disaster relief, the junior said she hoped to “gain some of his knowledge.”The author’s words and story struck a chord with the Currier House resident.“The capacity of people to organize and bring about results … that’s the main take-away, and something that’s hugely compelling to me, because it’s a human story,” she said.last_img read more

Far-out questions

first_imgAlmost every clear night, Avi Loeb, chairman of Harvard’s Astronomy Department, steps onto his porch and looks up at the Milky Way. The gleaming stars could be the lights of a giant space ship.Back inside, Loeb tells his wife what he’s seen. She tells him it would be OK to leave with the aliens — under certain conditions.“If there is an extraterrestrial, just make sure they leave the car keys with me,” Loeb’s wife tells him. “And don’t wake the dog in the backyard.”Absent a late-night visit from aliens, how might we discover if the universe is teeming with life? What tools exist to help the search?Loeb, the Frank B. Baird Jr. Professor of Science and director of the Institute for Theory and Computation, touched on those questions and others Tuesday at the Science Center during an hourlong talk titled “New Search Methods for Primitive and Intelligent Life Far from Earth.” The talk was the latest in a monthly series that connects the public with insights from scientific research. Mallinckrodt Professor of Physics Melissa Franklin served as moderator.The question of whether we’re alone has the potential to reshape almost every facet of human knowledge, with implications in biology, history, linguistics, politics, and much more. Our religious beliefs would be challenged.Many scientists assume that Earth is the center of the biological universe and that other galaxies are lifeless, but assumptions impede discovery, Loeb noted.“It was once common sense that heavy objects fell faster than light ones,” he said. “We should simply check our assumptions rather than make them, especially in the search for intelligent life.”One such assumption: that objects of the Kuiper belt, a region of the solar system beyond the orbit of Neptune, emit natural light reflected by the sun. It could be artificial light, Loeb said. A city the size of Tokyo could radiate light seen from that distance — if we looked for it, according to Loeb.Light could be the key to detecting life beyond the solar system, Loeb said. Planets have a habitable zone: the right distance from a star to be warm enough for liquid water. Scientists using powerful telescopes should be able to view the starlight passing through a planet’s atmosphere to detect the fingerprints of oxygen and methane, Loeb said.Such telescopes have already discovered candidates for observation. The deep-space Kepler satellite has found 3,500 objects. But Loeb said that the Hubble Space Telescope’s successor, the James Webb Space Telescope, set to be launched in 2018, will be an even more powerful investigative tool.“If we want to detect biological molecules of life in the next decade, this is the best instrument,” he said.There are also low-frequency observatories poised to eavesdrop on radio signals from extraterrestrial civilizations (while our signals head out into space to be captured). What would we do if we detected such a signal and made contact with a civilization billions of years older than our own?“We could ask, ‘What is the nature of dark matter and dark energy?’” Loeb said. “But it would feel like cheating on an exam.”last_img read more

China syndrome

first_imgAfter more than a decade of nearly can’t-miss growth, China’s stock market began a precipitous summer slide that has spooked investors worldwide. In July, the Shanghai composite index dropped 15 percent from June, prompting the People’s Bank of China to devalue the yuan by 1.9 percent in mid-August, the biggest currency adjustment in two decades. But continued trading volatility climaxed on Aug. 23 in what many have called China’s “Black Monday.” Shanghai stocks dropped by 8.5 percent overnight, their steepest single-day decline since 2007. Since June, China’s stock market has fallen 38 percent. As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s crash ripped through world markets, including Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, and the United States, as uneasy investors instigated historic single-day sell-offs. Early this week, the Chinese government reportedly arrested nearly 200 people, including corporate executives, government officials, and journalists, for allegedly spreading false rumors online about the market’s stability. And in a turnabout, authorities also announced they will not institute more interventions to rescue the still-shaky economy, as they had pledged. Dante Roscini, M.B.A. ’88 is a professor of management practice at Harvard Business School (HBS). For two decades, he ran equity capital markets for Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley. His casework focuses on international investment, sovereign debt, monetary policy, and central banking. Roscini spoke with the Gazette about China’s economic woes and how they may affect global markets and investors going forward.GAZETTE: Why were so many caught off-guard by this crash? Weren’t there warning signs that this might happen?ROSCINI: Yes, there were warning signs. Some of the indicators in China’s economy have been slowing for some time. In January, the official data for GDP growth was 7.4 percent, the weakest in 24 years and the first time in a century that growth fell short of the official target, although by only 0.1 percent. There has been continuing softness in data regarding manufacturing activity, exports, and imports. When China made a currency adjustment, market participants took fright, fearing a much bigger slowdown than they expected. The wheels came off an over-exuberant Chinese stock market, which had surged over 150 percent in 12 months and hit a seven-year high. The consequences were felt by financial markets everywhere.GAZETTE: Given how opaque China’s economy is, does anyone accurately know how deep or lasting this slowdown might be?ROSCINI: The official numbers must indeed be taken with a grain of salt. There is a debate in the marketplace and among economists as to what the future holds. Are we headed for a “soft landing,” a correction that can be managed so that growth, albeit at a slower pace, will continue to be solid, or are we at an inflection point and we risk a more precipitous deceleration, a “hard landing”?China has astounded the world for 30 years by growing consistently at 10 percent per year or more, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty. It has gone from almost nowhere to being the second-biggest economy, contributing 15 percent to the global GDP and 25 percent to its growth.Exports drove that growth. Over the past two decades, the level of exports to developed markets from China grew on the order of 20 percent per year. And yet, the consumption of goods in those markets was only growing by about 5 percent per year. China was therefore grabbing market share; “Made in China” became ubiquitous. This was driven in large part from massive outsourcing on the part of companies in developed markets. They were moving production to China in droves because labor was cheap, so the economy grew very, very fast.In the process of becoming the “factory of the world,” the country needed infrastructures: roads, ports, rails, plants, cities for the workers, and so on. Massive investment — rather than consumption — drove the economy. Consumption in China is still only about a third of GDP versus some 70-odd percent in the developed markets. China kept buying all sorts of goods and became the first importer in the world for a number of commodities, in the process benefiting those countries that could supply them.The issue is that we may be reaching the limits to the outsourcing trend. For example, almost 100 percent of textiles in this country are now outsourced — you can’t go further than that. Between 50 and 60 percent of all manufactured goods in the U.S. are outsourced, and not everything is outsourceable. Furthermore, wage inflation in China has dented its competitiveness and there are other location choices. So, the question is: How much more can this phenomenon continue? Are we at the end of the era of Chinese exceptionalism?This concept dovetails with the idea that China must change its development model in order to gain long-term economic and social stability. Economists have been saying this for a long time and the Chinese leadership is trying to rebalance growth toward consumption. In other economies where this shift has taken place before — such as the Asian Tigers — it was generally associated with lower growth since relying on endogenous progression of domestic demand is not as powerful as relying on an exogenous inflow of export-driving outsourcing.GAZETTE: Although the U.S. and European markets seem to have stabilized for now, what are the potential ramifications globally of China’s market troubles? Could their problems spill over into other markets?ROSCINI: Certainly it was trouble from a stock market perspective. The fall was as bad as we saw here in 2001 after the dot-com bubble. The response by the Chinese authorities was extraordinary. They enacted of series of price-distorting measures that smacked of desperation. They stopped all IPOs; they asked state-owned companies to buy back their shares; they arrested traders and journalists; they banned short selling and channeled pension money into equities, effectively nationalizing a piece of the market.Fortunately, the stock market is a rather small part of China’s economy. The total market capitalization is less than a third of GDP against the 100 percent or more in developed economies. Also, few people have their money in the stock market. The real money is in the property market; a drop in values of real estate would have more far-reaching consequences.In terms of global spillovers, the recovery in most developed markets does not depend on exports to China. Of course, if the Chinese deceleration were to lead to a negative shock to global growth, that would be bad news for everyone. I don’t believe this to be the base case unless there is a real hard landing.GAZETTE: Which industries and nations will feel this slowdown most acutely and how are they reacting?ROSCINI: China represents between 1 and 3 percent of the exports for the G3 economies [the United States, Germany, and Japan]. But for Australia, Chile, Korea, Singapore, and Peru for example, these numbers are more significant, anywhere from 6 to 17 percent. Some of China’s neighbors are tied to its manufacturing processes; other countries more far afield supply it with oil, gas, metals, and other primary materials. A slowdown in China could impact some of these emerging markets pretty hard. Capital has quickly flown out of them, hitting their currencies and equity markets. Europe is less exposed, though some specific sectors, such as luxury goods, will feel the pinch.GAZETTE: What does it mean for the U.S. economy if this is China’s new normal or things decline even further?ROSCINI: The U.S. is growing solidly. This crisis is not going to be too impactful through the trade channel. Exports make up only 13 percent of U.S. GDP and exports to China represent less than 1 percent of U.S. GDP. Some U.S. multinationals might be exposed to a fall in their overseas earnings. GE stock was down 20 percent for a time on Black Monday, though Apple, for example, recently said that business in China continues to be strong. Perhaps the strongest impact would be if, as some people are asking, the [Federal Reserve Bank] were to delay raising U.S. interest rates on the basis that China’s deceleration will induce a global slowdown. That decision would clearly have an effect on this economy.GAZETTE: What are investors most concerned about and what will they look for in the short and medium terms to feel confident again in China’s stability?ROSCINI: Investors are prone to panic, as we’ve seen; they tend to rush for the exits. In reality, China is generally in a position to manage the turbulence in its economy. First, it has a service sector that is growing fast and that will be a natural counterbalance to the slowdown in industry. Second, China is in good shape from a fiscal standpoint. They have a budget deficit target of 2.3 percent this year, but are currently in surplus. Third, they still have enormous foreign exchange reserves that will allow them to intervene in the currency market. Finally, the Chinese central bank has room for further monetary stimulus; they can lower the reserve requirement for banks from the current 18 percent of deposits and they can reduce interest rates. For example, the one-year lending rate is at 4.6 percent against practically zero here.One thing to watch for will be how China ensures the stability of its financial system since total debt has reached 250 percent of GDP, credit has been abundant, and the size of the shadow banking system has exploded.More, investors will judge how China is going to manage its reforms for the longer term. Are they going to foster the rule of law and give domestic and foreign entrepreneurs more confidence to invest? Are they going to allow private companies to better compete with state-owned ones? Are they going to change the system of residence permits so that people can move more freely? Will they liberalize the capital account and let the currency float? In short, markets will assess how credibly the country’s policies are evolving.GAZETTE: How does China’s political leadership affect their economy and their ability to correctly identify and fix the shortcomings? And have these emergency interventions damaged the market’s credibility?ROSCINI: I believe that the bigger question is if the political leadership will have the courage to move from a command economy to something that looks more like a market economy. Their heavy-handed remedial actions against the drop in the stock market have damaged their credibility. This was discouraging for those investors who were hoping that Beijing was making its markets more free. A fake marketplace creates distrust and is counterproductive in the long term.This interview has been edited for length and clarity.last_img read more