NFL Week 8 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds

The Denver Broncos, who moved into the top slot in our Elo ratings last week, widened their advantage over the rest of the league in Week 7. Denver looked dominant in beating the San Francisco 49ers, who had been the No. 3 Elo team. The No. 2 Seattle Seahawks lost — greatly imperiling their playoff chances — as did the No. 5 San Diego Shargers. The No. 4 team, the New England Patriots, barely won against an awful opponent, the New York Jets.So, it’s time to pose the question Aaron Schatz asked at Football Outsiders. Is this Denver team merely the best in the league — or one of the best teams ever?The Broncos’ Elo rating is 1683, which translates to being favored by a touchdown in a neutral-site game against an average opponent. It’s also a fairly typical rating for the best team in the league at this point in the season. On average since 1970, the highest-rated team through Week 7 had an Elo rating of 1686, almost exactly matching Denver’s this year.Let’s pick some nits with the Broncos: They’ve lost once this year. They had a bye week. They fizzled in the second half against the Indianapolis Colts. And they were crushed in last year’s Super Bowl.Is this unfair? Except perhaps for the Super Bowl part, of course it is. Denver’s loss came on the road at Seattle and may have literally been the result of a coin flip. Beating Indianapolis by any margin looks more impressive given how well the Colts have played since. It’s not the Broncos’ fault that the schedulers gave them an early-season bye (and thereby one less opportunity to improve their Elo rating). More sophisticated statistical treatments — from Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) to Benjamin Morris’s assessment of Peyton Manning’s clutchness — tend to have a higher opinion of the Broncos than Elo does.But if we’re judging whether the Broncos are a historically great team, we have the right — nay, the duty — to be very, very picky.This is not just an academic question. In the table below, I’ve taken the teams that had the highest Elo rating through Week 7 in each season since 1970. Eleven of the 25 teams that rated higher than the Broncos — or 44 percent — would go on to win the Super Bowl. But just two of the 19 (11 percent) that rated below the Broncos did.A lot of this is because even small advantages can compound over time. It’s not as though we can say with all that much confidence whether this year’s Broncos are better than, say, the 1998 edition of the team under John Elway. (Elo would have the 1998 Broncos favored, but by only 1.5 points). But a team that’s ever-so-slightly better is more likely to make the playoffs as a division champion rather than a wild card, more likely to have playoff games at home and to get a first-round bye, and more likely to win those playoff games once they occur. A team that’s a 70 percent favorite in each playoff game, and that needs to win three games to win the Super Bowl because it gets a bye, has a 34 percent chance of winning a championship. A team that’s a 60 percent favorite and that has to win four times has just a 13 percent chance.Elo puts the Broncos’ chances of winning the Super Bowl at 18 percent, somewhere between the two groups. Their Thursday-night home game against San Diego will be highly informative. A win for Denver would put it in a dominant position in the AFC West — it’d be a game-and-a-half ahead of the Chargers and at least two games ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs (with a tiebreaker advantage against each division rival). A loss to the Chargers would instead place Denver half a game behind San Diego with a tiebreaker disadvantage (and with the remaining game between the teams to be played in San Diego).The Broncos will probably make the playoffs as a wild card even if they lose their division, but the Super Bowl is much harder to win under those circumstances. The Broncos would have to play an extra game, and they’d have to play on the road. In our simulations, the Broncos won the Super Bowl 23 percent of the time as division champs but just 4 percent of the time as a wild card team. There’s not only playoff leverage riding on this game; there’s a lot of Super Bowl leverage at stake.Here are the current playoff odds for the other NFL teams:The Colts, who were briefly underdogs to make the playoffs after starting off their year 0-2 (Seahawks fans can take solace in that), are now 95 percent favorites to do so after having won every game since. Some of this is because the Colts are very good, but just as important is their extraordinarily weak division. The Houston Texans project to a record of 7-9, the Tennessee Titans 6-10, and the Jacksonville Jaguars (despite finally winning last week) 4-12. In our simulations, the Colts won the AFC South 82 percent of the time they finished with a 9-7 record and 62 percent of the time they went 8-8. Even a 7-9 record would often be enough to get them in. Andrew Luck is both lucky and good.Otherwise, the AFC playoff chase is more scrambled than last week. The Cincinnati Bengals are winless in their past three games (they managed a tie against the Carolina Panthers) and down to a 54 percent chance of making the playoffs, in danger of being lapped by Kansas City (41 percent) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (33 percent). Their matchup this week, at home against the division rival Baltimore Ravens, is another high-stakes game.The NFC, almost inevitably, will feature a ferocious battle for the wild card positions. Dallas, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Detroit, Arizona, San Francisco and Seattle all have somewhere between a 22 and 32 percent chance of winning a wild card. Three of those teams (barring a miraculous run by a team like the Chicago Bears) will win their divisions, but that leaves four teams fighting for two slots.The Arizona Cardinals, incidentally, have a chance to become the first team to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium. Although Arizona is probably weaker than either San Francisco or Seattle, it has a leg up in the NFC West by virtue of its 5-1 start. Elo gives the Cardinals a 15 percent chance of making the Super Bowl and an 8 percent chance of winning it.Elo point spreadsRecord against point spread: 49-50-3 (8-7 in Week 7)Straight-up record: 74-31-1 (10-5 in Week 7)Even if we thought you should bet based on these odds — and we don’t — it wouldn’t be in cases where bookmakers have a team as a 2.5-point favorite and Elo has the same team favored by, say, two points. There are a lot of games like that this week and fewer differences between Vegas and Elo than in past weeks. The biggest split of the week is in an unwatchable game: Elo has the Titans favored by three points at home against Houston, while Vegas has the Texans as one-point favorites.The Washington Redskins are also a perpetual punching bag for Elo, and the system would have you take the Dallas Cowboys against them (even as 9.5-point favorites, as Vegas has the Cowboys). As Washington was on the verge of losing to the Titans last week — it pulled the game out but didn’t cover the point spread — The Wall Street Journal’s Neil King tweeted that Washington was struggling to beat “the third worst team in the league,” presumably referring to Tennessee. Actually, Elo has Washington rated as the third-worst team! Washington went 11-5 against the point spread in 2012 and perhaps is still getting too much credit for it; it’s 7-16 against the spread since then. The team’s straight-up record, 5-18, is even worse. read more

Mother Nature Saves Savannah State Against Florida State

Savannah State just could not keep up with Florida State.Clearly, Mother Nature has a heart. How else do you explain that thunderstorms forced the premature end of the carnage of Savannah State’s meeting with Florida State, a match up many believed should not have happened in the first place?The Tigers from the quaint Georgia coastal town had to feel like a condemned prisoner receiving a reprieve. Florida State led 55-0 with still 8:59 left in the third quarter. Clearly, the Seminoles were on their way to covering the largest betting line in college football history, which at one point last week reached 70 ½ points.But two long delays because of severe thunderstorms of 56 minutes and 40 minutes – and a forecast for more – forced officials to call the game, a reprieve of sorts for Savannah State.Yes, the Tigers lost 55-0. But it could have been worse. It likely would have been worse.Worse, even, than the 84-0 crushing Savannah State suffered last week at Oklahoma State. Why would the small school from the historically black college conference, the MEAC, endure such beatings?It was paid $860,000, that’s why. That goes a long way toward meeting its $5.1 million athletic budget. So, from a Savannah State business perspective, the end justified the means.“It would be really good for my perspective at Savannah if those two teams play for the national championship and you guys call me for my evaluation of the game because I’m the only one who has seen them both,” Savannah State coach Steve Davenport said. “But like I said before, it’s really a helpless feeling. Those two programs and those players are really, really tremendous players.“We knew we were coming in a bit overmatched. Now we just hopefully got to get this thing turned around.”But what about those who bet on the game? According to pregame.com, a sports gambling website, all wagers on the game will be refunded — college football bets aren’t official until 55 minutes have been played.Before weather jumped in to save Savannah State, Florida State racked up 255 yards in the first quarter while the Tigers were minus-20 yards.Florida State led 28-0 seven minutes into the game, 35-0 in the first quarter and 48-0 at halftime. The out-manned Tigers could do nothing to stop the No. 6 team in the country. But Mother Nature did. read more

How Disruptive TV Changed the Way Providers Market

first_img Register Now » 5 min read Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own. April 14, 2016 Since the dawn of Netflix and other online streaming services, we’ve seen a change in how people consume media. As the landscape continues to change, with streaming services competing against network and cable TV with their own series, cable and satellite companies are getting more creative with marketing to retain customers.Cutting the cord: Netflix, Hulu and Amazon Prime.Studies show the number of people cutting the cord is rising, with 4.9 million fewer U.S. households subscribing to cable or satellite services than the year before, and that number is expected to increase another 12.5 percent in 2016, with steady losses until 2019.Related: Looking to Cut the Cable Cord? Dish Network’s Sling TV Is Now Available to EveryoneThat’s a result of streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime video, along with standalone offerings from HBO making it easier for people to watch what they want, when they want. Since devices like Roku, Apple TV, and Amazon Fire TV, as well as Blu-Ray players and gaming consoles allow people to stream content to their TVs, rather than tying them to the computer to watch – it’s easy to get the shows you want to see without having to pay a cable bill.There are, however, some people who still keep paid cable TV service, but opt for a smaller channel package and supplement with digital streaming services. Cord “shavers” are also more common than in the past, with basic packages representing 12 percent of pay-TV subscriptions, compared to just 8 percent to 10 percent a few years ago.But, data also shows more Americans will subscribe to TV services provided through telecom companies, as they’ve done a better job marketing their services, with the segment expected to jump 1.8 percent in 2016.Network TV at a fraction of the cost.Even though people are opting to completely ditch cable TV service in favor of streaming services, SlingTV offers the best of both worlds. For as little as $20 per month, with the option to add-on extra channels for $5 per month, or HBO for $15 per month, consumers can get around having to pay a hefty cable bill, while still getting their favorite content from channels like Food Network, TBS, HGTV, History Channel, ESPN and more.Related: Brands Must Embrace Cable Cord-Cutters for Marketing EffectivenessThe caveat is, only one TV can view it at a time — so there’s no luxury of everyone in the house watching separate things at the same time. That’s where traditional Digital TV subscriptions still have the upper hand.How digital TV providers are fighting for market share.To keep the competition fierce and help convince people to keep their cable and satellite TV subscriptions, companies are offering extra perks to sweeten the deal. And for many providers, it’s working.SuddenLink, for instance, offers what they call the VIP Perk Program. Subscribers who elect to get their bundle with digital TV service, Internet, and phone are automatically enrolled in the program. It includes:Special discountsPeriodic free moviesTV Caller IDPriority service – a separate customer service number to ensure calls are answered fastSurprise perks – exclusive sneak previews and discounts on new products and servicesCharter may have retired their Live it With Charter rewards program where customers earned points redeemable for products based on the amount of their monthly bill, but that doesn’t mean they’ve stopped trying to woo customers. Now, they’re offering to pay up to $500 to buy people out of service contracts with competing providers. Plus, they run limited time only only specials to include freebies – such as installation or DVR service.Related: 7 Technologies That Are Disrupting the Cable TV BusinessDirecTV doesn’t offer a customer loyalty program, instead locking customers into a two-year contract. But, for that first year, customers are given discounts on their packages, and the NFL Sunday Ticket, which provides access to all out-of-market games, except those that the NFL blacks out for the entire season. They’re under contract with the NFL as the only provider for this package, which gives them a competitive edge among football fans. An upgraded version of the package allows for access via mobile device. They’ve also got similar packages for other sports, including MLB Extra Innings, NBA League Pass, and NHL Center Ice.Beyond this, many providers are also making it possible to watch TV on-the-go, on your tablet, laptop, or phone, offering the same freedom and flexibility as streaming services.Whether you’re still paying for a digital TV subscription, shaving the cord in favor of streaming services but not ready to cut it, or have abandoned paid cable completely, media companies are still vying for your attention, and that will likely never change.Where do you stand? Do you still pay for cable? Attend this free webinar and learn how you can maximize efficiency while getting the most critical things done right. Free Webinar | Sept 5: Tips and Tools for Making Progress Toward Important Goalslast_img read more